A high-stakes politics is being played in Nigeria, as there seems to be a schism developing in the ruling party, the Peoples Democratic Party, between the north and south, with current President Goodluck Jonathan being the anchor fueling the discord. The other political gladiators in the ring with Jonathan, include former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, former military Head of State Gen. Ibrahim Babangida, and in a bombshell, Jonathan's National Security Adviser, retired Gen. Gusau, who resigned after Jonathan's huge rally to announce his candidacy. It is the resignation of Gen. Gusau, and his intention to challenge his boss, Jonathan, for the job as his intention to pick up nomination forms has shown, which has thrown a huge wrench into Jonathan's armor. In other words, it seems to have jolted the Jonathan camp into a huge crisis.
Until Friday, Aliyu Mohammed Gusau was the National Security Adviser to President Jonathan. He was formerly a Lt. Gen. in the Nigerian army, working mainly in military intelligence, and also held the post of National Security Adviser during the Obasanjo administration. His resignation has brought such crisis within the Jonathan group that he had to cancel his trip to the United Nations, it seems like his late boss, Yar'Adua. Jonathan was supposed to speak at Columbia University in New York, apart from his scheduled attendance of the United Nations General Assembly. The entrance of Gusau will bring to four people in the north who have announced their intentions to run for office.
This is the scenario that has developed over the last month: On August 15, 2010, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar declared his intention to run for the PDP's presidential primary. But he has a tough assignment, having ditched the PDP in 2006 to run for president on the ticket of the Action Congress party. Mr. Abubakar had developed a testy relationship with his boss, former President Olusegun Obasanjo, over Atiku's objection to Obasanjo running for a third term of four years. When it was clear that Obasanjo would never allow him to succeed him as President, though he was responsible for having Obasanjo elected in 1999, as well as being pivotal in providing the power for others to support Obasanjo the second time, he resigned from the PDP and jumped to the Action Congress. Through manipulation of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission, he was not only brought up on charges of corruption, but Obasanjo tried to deny him his official entitlements which the courts ruled against. The other problem that Atiku has is that he is seen as very corrupt by most Nigerians, having been tainted by the William Jefferson scandal, in which he was supposed to have been bribed with $100,000.
Just this week, Wednesday the 15th of September, in fact, former Head of State Gen. Ibrahim Babangida held a huge rally at the Eagles Square in Abuja to announce his own candidacy. Babangida ruled Nigeria from August 27, 1985, after overthrowing the government of Gen. Muhammadu Buhari, until August 27, 1993, when he was forced to leave office, after annulling the June 12th election, that most people considered the freest and fairest election that Nigeria ever held that would have brought Chief M.K.O. Abiola to power. The annulment of the June 12th election is what is considered one of Babangida's greatest problems; and then there is the accusation that he is yet to account for the $12 billion windfall profit that Nigeria earned during the aftermath of the 1990s Gulf war. In his favor is the view that some Nigerians hold that during his period in office, the Nigerian wealth was spread evenly as against the later years of Abacha and Obasanjo during which wealth has been concentrated in a few hands.
General Aliyu Mohammed Gusau - actually his real name is Aliyu Mohammed, but the Nigerian Army renamed him General Aliyu Mohammed Gusau (after the town he was born) to distinguish him from another General Aliyu Mohammed - had sent in his letter of resignation in July, but President Jonathan had refused to accept it. According to information, Gen. Gusau decided to act publicly about his resignation, after the PDP announced a timetable for the party's primaries, which is supposed to happen on October 22.
All these three aspirants are all from the north of Nigeria and all are Muslims. The fourth candidate is the Governor Bukola Sariki of Kwara State, chair of the Governors' Council.
But then, President Goodluck Jonathan decided to enter the face on Wednesday through his facebook, on the same day that former Head of State Babangida was holding a huge rally to announce his candidacy. There were political maneuverings that went on that day calculated to steal the thunder from Babangida's rally. First was the Jonathan's Facebook announcement, and the attempt to hold the PDP's National Executive Committee at 12 noon, to prevent a large number of governors and delegates from being at the rally. On Saturday, September 18, he held a huge rally at the same venue that Babangida had used, Eagles Square, to announce to a huge throng of supporters that he is officially running for his party's nomination.
I, Goodluck Ebele Azikiwe Jonathan, have decided to humbly offer myself as a candidate in the presidential primaries of our great party, ...in order to stand for the 2011 presidential elections," said Jonathan at the mammoth rally. "I have come to say to all of you that Goodluck Ebele Azikiwe Jonathan is the man you need to put Nigeria right," he said. Continuing, he said, "I have come to launch a campaign of ideas, not one of calumny. I have come to preach love, not hate. I have come to break you away from divisive tendencies of the past which have slowed our drive to true nationhood."
From the 28 out of 29 PDP governors in the country who attended the Jonathan rally, it would appear that he has the nomination locked up. But many Northern leaders vehemently oppose Jonathan's candidacy, based on what they said was the PDP's zonal agreement that said the presidency should rotate between the Christian south and Muslim north every eight years. From 1999 to 2007, President Olusegun Obasanjo, a southerner and a Christian, ruled Nigeria. He orchestrated the selection of Mr. Umaru Yar'Adua and Goodluck Jonathan as candidates of the PDP for the elections in 2007. Mr. Yar'Adua was a Muslim from the North in keeping with the so-called zonal agreement of the party, while Jonathan is a Christian from the South. Both were elected and took office in May of 2007. Unfortunately, Mr. Yar'Adua became very sick and died in May of this year, leading to the elevation of the Vice President who was already Acting President as the substantive President of Nigeria.
The North has charged that in keeping with the zonal agreement of the PDP, Jonathan who is serving out the late Yar'Adua first term of office, should not be allowed to run for the presidency. But the PDP in its last Executive meeting, decided that any Nigerian was entitled to run for the presidency irrespective of religious or area of origin. In other words, Jonathan, a Christian from the South-South, should not be allowed to run for the party's primary, let alone run as a president candidate of the PDP.
Again, the four candidates from the north have signed an agreement, that says they are going to produce one candidate to represent the North at the party's primaries. Gen. Babangida would appear to be the most powerful of the four candidates.
Finally, it has to be pointed out that the so-called 'zonal agreement' that is in the PDP's constitution is not part of the Nigerian constitution, which states that every Nigeria is entitled to run for the highest office of the land. And there are quite a strong element of the PDP that argues that the party never had the zonal agreement, including former President Olusegun Obasanjo, who is supporting Jonathan to run for the party's nomination.
In my next analysis, I will be examining the unprecedented jolt dealt to Jonathan by Gen. Aliyu Mohammed Gusau's resignation that he was forced to cancel all his foreign trips, especially to the United Nations where he was due to address the Nigerian Diaspora as well as other engagements, including speaking at the Columbia University in New York. We will also handicap Jonathan's chances of winning the nomination against the forces arrayed against him from the North. We will also examine what was behind the visit to former Head of State General Babangida by the American Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs, Ambassador Johnnie Carson accompanied by the American Ambassador to Nigeria Robin Saunders.
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