Nigeria plans to conduct a head count to determine the actual
population of the country on March 21 through March 25, 2006. To accomplish
this, activities and movement throughout the country will be restricted.
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Without a doubt, population census
has remained the most sensitive and most controversial in the politics and
administration of Nigeria. Many will be surprise to learn that it was the
indirect cause of the Biafran civil war and the 1975 coup d?etat.
For the 2006 census, Nigeria plans
to spend $121.4 million half of which is contributed by the European Union.
Already, controversies are raging on the plan to eliminate data on religion and
tribe. The first census conducted in any part of Nigeria was in 1866, when
British colonialists counted Nigerians only in the then Lagos colony.
Another
census took place in 1911 in both northern and southern protectorates. The
first nationwide census was conducted in 1921, seven years after the
amalgamation of the northern and southern protectorates by the colonialists in
1914. Following this, censuses were conducted in 1931, 1952, 1953, 1962, 1963
and 1973.
The last census conducted in Nigeria
took place in November 1991. Contrary to the projected figure of 100 million
people, the nation's population was put at 88.5 million. As soon as the figure
was released, a lot of eyebrows were raised. Like all the previous census
results, it was terribly flawed. One such census was conducted in 1973. Those
prominent Nigerians charged with this important project, like those before
them, could not put aside tribalism, as a result, the resulting figures didn't
even add up as those (military) in power manipulated the exercise to secure
anticipated advantage in national revenue sharing and political representation.
An earlier projection of Nigerian
population, based on the 1963 census, put the population at 120.5 million. This
same estimate was projected by international organizations. The final 1963
census figure put Nigeria at 55.66 million. Was Nigeria really 55.66 million in
1963? This question became necessary when considering a projected 120.5
millions and a recorded 88.5 million. How wrong was the figure in 1963 or how
right was the figure in 1991? Otherwise why were these projections by several
organizations so far off base? Overestimation of more than 40% is no
estimation. One could as well simply pull a number from the top of his head or
from the lottery machine and use that to represent the country.
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It is true that even in advanced
countries, such as the United States, problems are encountered in the course of
population count.
Following the 1990 U.S. Census, several states and urban
centers indicated that they were undercounted. The U.S. Census Bureau issued a
statement acknowledging an error in the 1% region. Considering that sound
economic planning in any society is based on a sensible census figures, how
reliable are our figures? What are the drawbacks of such undoing?
Perhaps to fully understand the
census figures of 1991, it might be necessary to revisit the previous census
figures of 1963. The first post independent Nigerian head count occurred in
1962 that put Nigeria population at 45.26 million. At the end of the exercise,
northern Nigeria was 22.01 million while the south was 23.25 million. Southern
hopes for reapportionment of legislative seats were buoyed by the results. When
this result was presented to Abubakar Tafawa Balewa, the Prime Minister, who
was a northerner, he rejected the result outright.
Abubakar saw no reason why southern
Nigeria should have been more populated than the north. He promptly fired the
British representative, J. J. Warren, who was in charge of the census and
usurped the position. He then called for a 1963 census. Following the recount,
he announced that northerners were undercounted by a whopping 8.5 million!
The nation's population was reported
to be 60.5 million, a figure which the census officials believed to be
impossibly high. The figure was scaled down to 55.66 million. With this new
addition, the northern figure ballooned to 31 million and this result was
deemed acceptable by the Prime Minister, Abubakar.
The South did not waste time
disputing the new figures. Following a little doctoring, the North was finally
put at 29.8 million, a little less than the 31 million attained previously in
the recount while the South was reduced to 25.9 million. In the recount, the
East, Midwest, and Lagos remained virtually where they were in the 1962 census
at 12.4, 2.5, and 0.7 million, respectively. The West increased from 7.8
million in 1962 to 10.3 million in 1963.
The figures were rejected by both
Premiers of the East and Midwest, M. I. Okpara and Dennis Osadebey,
respectively. Okpara sued for the nullification of the census figures, but his
suit was dismissed. Akintola, whose party was in alliance with Abubakar's
party, accepted the figures. Not surprisingly, therefore, the West, like its
political partner, the North, had a sizeable increase. It was this same 1963
census figure that led to the election controversy in the West in 1965.
The
aftermath of those doctored figures led to the crisis in the West and
eventually the first military coup d?etat in 1966 by Nzeogwu.
Because of this
selfish-and-win-at-all-cost attitude, figures that can never be replicated by
any two persons are being thrown about everywhere. This is partly as a result
of the undisciplined and corrupt political and economic environment, which in
large part has given rise to an unprecedented wave of white collar crimes, such
as oil bunkering, drug trafficking, and the advance fee fraud popularly known
as "419" which is now the order of the day.
In spite of its known flaw, the 1963
national Census figures have been continuously used by local and international
"experts" in making economic, political and social welfare
projections for the country! It is therefore not shocking to have power and
telephone lines that are forever overloaded, because no one knows how many
people they are serving.
In the political arena, politicians
of today, much like in the days of Abubakar, have made politics a
life-and-death affair. To them the end justifies the means irrespective of how
subversive the means might have been. During the 1991 census, just like in any
election, there were reports of the enumerators much like "electoral
officers vanishing into the toilets and bushes with the results and later
emerging with doctored figures."
The passion for doctored figures is
stronger now than before because the higher a state is in population, the more
revenue allocation it receives from the Federal Government. This means that
those at the helm of affairs must make sure that their states and ethnic groups
are always higher in number to be able to receive the lion's share of the national
cake. Apart from the oil revenue, with this posture they can justify their
dominance in the military, political positions, contract awards, and the rest.
The end result is that the country does not have a population figure that worth
the paper it is written on.
As in the previous results, as soon
as the 1991 census results were released, the affected states, mostly the
southern minority states denounced and rejected the figures. Again, like in
1973, these protests were silenced prematurely. The provisional 1973 figure
released by General Gowon showed Nigeria to be 83 million with the overwhelming
number in the North. Southerners protested, and the figure was again revised
and reduced to 79.8 million. The final figure showed the Southerners to be just
a fraction less than the Northerners.
The situation became very explosive.
Northerners protested and accused Gowon of treachery. The confrontation
engendered almost led to a physical altercation between Chief Awolowo and
General Murtala Mohammed, who became the champion of the Northern hegemony. The
stalemate that resulted from that census figure became one major reason Gowon
decided to postpone his handing over date from 1976. The 1973 census figure
also became one major reason Murtala Mohammed had to overthrow Gowon's
government in 1975, and promptly canceling the figures.
It is true that Nigerians have ways
to deal with figures and numbers. As long as it doesn't adversely affect those
involved, anything is possible. The 1979 presidential election, for instance,
gave an added meaning to two-thirds of nineteen states, which became equal to
thirteen states. With that arithmetic, Shagari was declared a winner of the
presidential election. Whether this was inter-ethnic or intra-ethnic
arithmetic, it was hard to say.
However, to avoid a repeat of that
arithmetical fiasco and to exert the numerical strength of the North, the
military created new states and increased the number to thirty six, with
nineteen in the North and seventeen in the South.
Now comes the 2006 census. What
should Nigerians expect or why should we expect anything different? As long as
tribes in Nigeria continue to be distrustful to one another with competing
goals, cultures, religion, and interests, etc., Nigeria shall never produce any
census result worth the paper it is written on.
Reference:
Mbeke-Ekanem, T. 2000. "Beyond
the Execution: Understanding the Ethnic and Military Politics in Nigeria".
Udo, Reuben K; 2000. Population Census in Nigeria: Depoliticization
Udo, Reuben K; 2000. Population Census in Nigeria: Depoliticization
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