Geopolitical Tension And The Unfinished Civil War In Nigeria

First, trouble loomed when Acting President Osinbajo dignified the treasonable Biafra (50th anniversary) cause with a Federal Government presence. That was unthinkable and reprehensible, an endorsement of the Biafra flag and advocacy no matter how much Osinbajo tried to justify that action from his spin zone.

Secondly, as if Osinbajo's misadventure was not provocative enough, IPOB, usurping the role of an elected government, "forced" a public holiday in the South-East, craftily calling it a sit home rally of members and sympathisers who support its fantasy sovereign Biafra. Both the Federal Government and all South-East State Governments were indifferent and looked the other way in silent approval. 

Sovereign Biafra agitators, by reasons of Osinbajo's veiled endorsement and IPOB's provocative stunt, scored some major psychological and political points. What the 1966-1970 civil war could not achieve (Federal Government endorsement of the Biafra cause) for the Igbos, IPOB, in 2017, within a few weeks of its leader's release on court bail, has achieved through the back doors of provocation and ethnocentric manipulation.

Without firing a single gunshot, the unfinished civil war has revived. Now, Nigeria, already grappling with so many adversities in all sectors, must deal with that demon of her unfinished civil war. It has been a lingering war, such that must be completely fought out for closure. Finishing the war will either reset the nation for a fresh start or severely blight the nation for as long as Nigerians choose to remain ethnocentric and stupid. 

Consequences of Provocation 

Apparently, the provocation has consequences:

1)  some Northern groups and persons have angrily reacted, announcing their (North's) intention to break away from a Nigeria in which are the Igbos. All Igbos residing in Northern Nigeria have been given three months ultimatum to leave or face ethnic cleansing. Also, an advisory for Northerners to leave the South-East has been issued.

2)  the Federal Government has issued a statement condemning all indignant Northern groups and persons who issued the ultimatum and advisory. 

3)  some Northern State governors have issued statements reiterating a united and indivisible Nigeria, condemning ultimatum and advisory notices issued by indignant Northern groups. 

4)  mixed reactions, often intransigent and ethnocentric, trail in favor of either the restructuring or outright break up of Nigeria. Most Middle Belt Nigerians align with the South in wanting to break away from the current Nigeria that has Hausa/Fulani folks as citizens. Most South-South Nigerians endorse the looming break away but want absolutely nothing to do with the South-East Igbos. Most South-West Nigerians have since advocated and are planning for an Oduduwa Republic. 

Threat of Ethnic Cleansing is Real

If a hardly known religious sect can quickly transform into the Boko Haram monstrosity, nobody should underestimate the threat of ethnic cleansing against Igbos resident in the Northern Nigeria.

Already, the terrorism genie is out of the bottle and cannot be recalled. Couple that with biting poverty, religious fundamentalism, dillapidated institutions and depleting economies in its profile, Northern Nigeria remains a very unstable and volatile region to deal with. No one can predict how far the already nervous and frustrated Northern folks can go with their threats.

What Must Be Done 

History shows that it will be very difficult for intransigent ethnic groups to agree on terms for restructuring while coexisting in the Nigeria shell.

So, the best and logical approaches unto peace are for  easy referendum and Nigeria exit (NEXIT) terms to be negotiated and implemented with regards to whichever group wants to break away.

NEXIT

Definitely, Nigeria needs a fresh start. Instead of overflogging the tall order issue of whether there should be the restructuring of Nigeria, let us amend the Constitution as necessary, hold referendums and negotiate exit terms with geopolitical groups that want to break away.

Something or someone must hit the reset button for these things to come about. If it takes the Arewa (Hausa/Fulani North) challenge against the IPOB (Igbo South-East ) provocation to trigger the unfinished civil war and hit reset button, each having so far demonstrated their service marks of intolerance and ethnocentric stupidity, so be it. Let's call their bluff, let the Northerners and Igbos voluntary evacuate from each other's geopolitical boundaries. 

Enough is Enough 

Let the Middle and South-South belts stay out of their nonsense; let the trouble makers destroy themselves so that we can have peace.

Since amalgamation, the three major ethnic groups have proven that they cannot peacefully co-exist. All of Nigeria's most debilitating problems and dysfunction have root in their deeply entrenched cultures of selfishness, craftiness, religious or ehnic intolerance and disgust for each other.

Since independence, the Middle and South-South belts have been providing delicate balance for a united and peaceful Nigeria. Additionally, to a very large extent, they provide the bulk of food and natural resources that sustain the nation. There is no longer any justification or need to share burdens with temperamental free loaders who voluntarily want to break away.