Country Risk : Succession concerns over Nigerian president’s prolonged absence fuel sectarian and geopolitical rivalry, raising death and injury risks

Key Points

• Coup warnings and threatening declarations by ethno-cultural groups are a likely result of continued uncertainty over the immediate future of the Nigerian president.
• A second inheritance of the presidency by a southern vice-president in quick succession is likely to be strongly opposed by northern elites.
• Competition starting in the next few months over the president’s All Progressives Congress party’s nomination for the 2019 election is likely to trigger violence directed at ethnic outsiders, raising death and injury risks across the country.

EVENT

A second lengthy period of medical treatment in the United Kingdom for Nigerian president Muhammadu Buhari is driving concerns among his political allies and northern power-brokers that he may not be able to complete his first term in office.