…@56:
Nigeria Still a ticking time bomb
Last
month, Nigeria rolled out the drums, in an unending ritual, to celebrate its
56th independence anniversary. There were congratulatory messages, dances,
march past, military parades, lectures and inter-denominational services
preaching national unity.
But some issues remained the same: there were pretensions of a united country
and the mantra of “one Nigeria” which is very distant from the reality on
ground.
Looking
at our estimated population, multi-ethnic composition and abundant mineral
resources available, Nigeria was designed for greatness. But the progression
rate has been stunted by forces of retrogression.
Population
Census
For a
long time now, Nigeria has lived under the false impression of having a
credible population census that gave the current figures of over 150 million or
an estimated figure of 182.2 million people in 2015.
What we have had are manipulated figures, lacking biometrics and a total
absence of a credible and reliable population census figures.
Starting from the 1963 population census exercise conducted by the Tafawa
Balewa government both the southern and northern parts of the country made
bogus claims to higher population figures. While the south was said to have
presented figures that proved that the south was more in number, an alarmed
Balewa government conducted a verification exercise and suddenly found
additional 8 million people in the north which showed that they had greater
numbers of people.
Accusations that official population figures had been rigged dates back to the
1960s. Apart from the ones earlier conducted under colonial rule in 1911 and
that of 1921, considered the most comprehensive while that of 1952/53 was
described as the most elaborate. Disputations of the population census figures
continued with the 1962 census which was cancelled. The 1963 exercise as noted
above was not generally acceptable while the trend continued under subsequent
civilian and military regimes.
In the run up to independence, the British government was accused of skewing
census figures to favour the north.
The census conducted subsequently in 1973 was so controversial it was annulled
and no figures was published. The same fate befell the 1991 census which was
disputed and equally annulled in spite of the huge financial commitment to the
exercise.
The
developmental challenges facing Nigeria today is firmly rooted in a dubious
population census figures released by the National Population Commission (NPC)
which puts the North-west at 35,786,944 million, North-east, 18,971,965
million, North-central, 18,841,056 million, South-west 27,511,992 million,
South-south 21,014,655 million and South-east 16,381,729 million
Dominance
Anchored on Fraud
Nigerians
are familiar with fraudulent activities associated with census exercises in
Nigeria ranging from opening the borders to allow massive influx of foreigners
who pose as Nigerians and are counted as Nigerians, deliberate efforts of state
governments to compromise census officials to spike population figures, the
insistence on the use of state of residence as against state of origin in
filling census forms and the humourous inclusion of animals as part of the
human figures.
The
outcome is that Kano and Lagos states which the 2006 exercise put at above 9
million or more accurately (17 million according to a survey conducted by Lagos
State government) are the most populated states. But Kano has 44 local
government councils as against 20 for Lagos. Kano’s 44 local government
councils equals or outnumbers the entire South-east geo-political zone. The
number of constituencies in the state outnumbers Lagos and the South-east.
With the contested figures of the zones in the north, 80 percent of federal
appointments, armed forces, paramilitary organisations and the federal civil
service are occupied by core northerners in violation of federal character
principles not even in the ratio of the above mentioned figures.
For example, a research carried out by Africapolis – the African arm
of e-Geopolis, a global study of urban populations, which is supported by
the Agence Française de Dévelopement said: “Unfortunately, it is not
possible to give a firmly reliable estimate for the total population of
Nigeria. The 2006 census cited a population of around 140 million. The most
commonly cited figures today are from the World Bank, and they are extrapolated
from that headcount. It reports that 168 million people were living in Nigeria
in 2012, which on the basis of 3% growth rates would suggest a population of
around 178 million in 2014.
“But because the census figures are so unreliable, neither senior Nigerian
politicians such as (former)Senate President David Mark nor the former head of
the organisation that ran that census, Festus Odimegwu, are willing to declare
confidence in the last census.
One of the researchers, Dr Potts, agreed that it was “almost certainly an
over-count”.
That implies that today’s statistics – taken from faulty figures – are equally
misleading.
“These figures are just guesstimates. Nobody knows whether the population is
120 million, 150 million, 200 million – no Nigerian, not the NPC, the UN, the
World Bank,” Odimegwu explained to Africa Check. “Unless you conduct a proper
census, which has never been done without political interference, it is not
possible to know,” the report captured on Africa Check, said.
Population
as a Development Tool
The importance of accurate demographic data in a nation’s development cannot be
overemphasized. This aides realistic planning of social services and
distribution of resources to states and local governments. Census exercises
have failed in Nigeria owing to poor funding, poor planning, poor preparations
and lack of proper training of personnel. Beyond these, census exercises have
failed largely because of the linkage between it and revenue allocation and
political representation.
With a perpetually corrupt leadership, relying on revenue allocations based on
falsified census figures little or no attention is given to adequate plans for
health, education, transportation, agriculture and energy requirements of the
population.
The United Nations once offered to assist Nigeria conduct a credible and
reliable census considering the ethnic differences and a history of failed head
counts but it was turned down by the forces of retrogression in order to hide
the truth. Nigeria still lacks accurate data about population size, its
distribution, mortality and fertility rates, migration and emigration, sex,
marital status, structure for planning purposes in respect of age groups,
religion, shelters to be provided for and plans for building schools etcetera.
A
Colonial Legacy of Fraud
If
Britain entrenched population census fraud that is threatening Nigeria’s
corporate existence, should it not benefit Nigeria, to embrace the reality of
the 21st century by conducting an internationally acceptable head count that
could put the strength of its population to good use as is obtainable in China
and India? Must the country be perpetually consigned to neo-colonialism?
In any case, those who are ready to fight with the last drop of their blood to
ensure a perpetuation of the fraud are already facing the constant that is
change other than the parochial change that is after their heart as we appear
incapable of tackling crime with modern technology owing to the absence of a
forensic database, neither are we able to confront food insecurity with
agricultural policies loaded with fraudulent figures.
Do we even have counter-terrorism methods or close to equipment designed to
curb oil pipeline vandalisms and bombings in spite of the trillions allocated
over the years on the basis of falsified census figures?
A thief soon looks round and wonders where all the loot he amassed over the
years are located, finding none and unable to see the impact on society is left
with high poverty rate (74 per cent in North-east and North-west presently),
insurgency and militancy.
There
have been disparate attempts to build biometric databases at the Nigerian
Immigration Service for visas, Bank Verification Numbers (BVN), the National
Identity card started by late Head of State, Gen Murtala Mohammed and now
managed by the National Identity Management Commission (NIMC) as well as the
sim card registration by telecommunications companies as ordered by the
Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC).
President
Buhari recently directed a harmonisation of all the sectoral databases but how
far this would go remains to be seen.
Nigeria
Needs N222bn to Conduct 2018 Census
By United
Nations recommendations, every country should conduct a population census every
10 years. With the sluggish movement of the present administration, the target
is already missed and the new target year is 2018.
At a recent meeting with the Senate committee on National Identity Cards and
National Population Commission, Chairman of the National Population Commission
(NPC),Eze Duru Iheoma, told Nigerians that the commission needed N222 billion
to conduct an accurate, reliable and acceptable population and housing census
slated for 2018.
He said the amount would cover the pre-census, census and post-census
expenditures.
“For the census we proposed, I want to give you some background information. In
preparing for this census, since 2015, we have regularly hinted that given the
resources, we will be prepared to do a census in 2016.
“We stated how the resources should be made available. Unfortunately, that
didn’t happen. Then, of course, we submitted a budget at that time,” he said.
The Senate committee advised the commission to seek the funding assistance of
international donor agencies in view of the precarious economic situation in
the country in order to execute the exercise. The committee also urged NPC to
commercialise issuance of birth and death certificates as well as vital data to
the public and private sectors in order to generate more revenue.
Speaking during a recent debate on the need to conduct a credible census
exercise, Deputy President of the Senate, Ike Ekweremadu, warned the population
commission against embarking on a controversial exercise.
“I want
to thank the sponsor of the motion; as we approach the next census, we must take
advantage of the development in technology and make the results of the exercise
acceptable.
“All the previous exercises have been disputed. We want this exercise to count;
every Nigerian must be counted and no one should be counted twice.
“If we do this, we will be able to plan,” Ekweremadu said.
Will
President Buhari’s government that has played up ethnicity and religious bias
in his appointments so far (95-5 per cent) be able to conduct a credible census
exercise that would be acceptable to the rest of Nigeria?
It is
important that Nigeria accepts the initial request by the United Nations to get
involved in organising a credible census exercise for the country in order to
move the nation forward.
Without a credible, verifiable and globally supervised population census
exercise, Nigeria would remain stagnant and threats to its corporate existence
would remain.
One North
and the Mass Murders
We were
regaled in Nigeria about one monolithic north. Some sections of the north have
hidden under this slogan that expired after the civil war to continue to
dominate and occupy every available position without consideration for the
danger it poses to the corporate existence of Nigeria.
We have had cases of two graduates who were employed in Enugu and Bauchi at
level 8 on the same day. Two years after the Bauchi graduate is already on
level 12 and is moved to the federal civil service in Abuja. Within five years,
he’s close to director in the federal civil service.
But his counterpart in Enugu is still at level 8, some years later while his
colleague is already on level 15, he is at level 12 and should he move to the
federal civil service, he is demoted to level 10!
The deliberate killings of thousands of innocent women, children and men, who
are christian minorities in Chibok, Borno State, Agatu, Benue State, persistent
killings in Southern Kaduna, Shiite Muslims, Biafran agitators in the
South-east over the years can hardly be swept under the carpet unless they are
satisfactorily addressed. There are also the other Hausa populations, who are
neither Christian nor muslim, who have been shut out of Nigeria without any
amenities in those areas that are not known to Nigerians. The blood of the
innocents are crying for justice. There must be justice! And time is running
out for system manipulators in Nigeria.
