A big all day and night party is already on at the State House in Abuja this morning following the expected victory of President Goodluck Jonathan and his running mate, Vice President Mohammed Namadi Sambo in the epic presidential primaries of the ruling Peoples Democratic Party [PDP].
With results in from 21 states as at 3am this morning, Jonathan had won all but three state delegations with a total of nearly 1400 votes. His top challenger, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, won outright in the three far-Northern states of Sokoto, Zamfara and Kano, and he came within a hair's breadth of staging an upset in Bauchi State. He had a total of more than 450 votes as at 3am this morning.
In Sokoto, Atiku won by a landslide 84 votes to 32, while in Zamfara, he won by an even wider margin of 70 votes to 7. Atiku's victory in Sokoto appeared to confirm reports that Governor Aliyu Magatakarda Wamakko had led the old Caliphate capital to oppose Jonathan's bid and uphold the power rotation principle that he and 9 other Northern governors endorsed at a summit in Kaduna last July.
Although Wamakko had teamed up with Jigawa State governor Sule Lamido and Adamawa State governor Murtala Nyako to oppose Jonathan's bid, the latter two abandoned the effort and struck deals with Jonathan, to whose camp they delivered their delegations'votes.
Atiku's most significant victory however was recorded in the populous far Northern state of Kano, where he garnered 98 votes to Jonathan's 21.
In Bauchi, base of Jonathan/Sambo North East zonal coordinator Governor Isa Yuguda, Jonathan managed a very slim win of 46 votes to Atiku's 44.
The result was a big surprise given Governor Isa Yuguda's strong support for the Jonathan/Sambo ticket, but observers attributed it to protest votes from many state and Federal legislators who were defeated in primary elections, as well as to the raging intra-party feud between Yuguda and three prominent PDP leaders in the state Secretary to the Government of the Federation, Mahmud Yayale Ahmed, Federal Capital Territory Minister Bala Mohamed and former state governor Ahmadu Adamu Muazu, who recently returned from self-exile in Dubai.
Elsewhere though, Jonathan recorded wins by very substantial margins. His strongest showing, as expected, was in the Southern states, all of which he won. In his native Bayelsa State, Jonathan's victory margin was 67 votes to zero, while in neighbouring Rivers State, he garnered 128 votes to Atiku's 2. He also won comfortably in the Western states of Lagos, Osun and Ondo, as well as in the south eastern state of Anambra.
Although Atiku lost in his home state of Adamawa, he made a strong showing there, garnering 31 votes to Jonathan's 76. In neighbouring Taraba State, he got 16 votes to Jonathan's 65, in a state where Atiku's political machine used to be very dominant in the old Gongola State. He also made impressive showings in the North Eastern states of Yobe, where he got 20 votes to Jonathan's 29, and Borno, where he got 26 votes to Jonathan's 33.
Although the Jonathan/Sambo presidential pair will be relishing their hard-earned victory this morning, they will already be looking over their shoulder to a potentially very bruising general election in April. They are expected to come up against General Muhammadu Buhari, candidate of the new Congress for Progressive Change [CPC] party, whose membership grew in geometrical proportions last year, and it is expected to state an upset in several Northern states.
The Jonathan/Sambo ticket's relatively poor showing among Northern state delegations was seen by observers as a reflection of power rotation sentiment among Northern PDP members, and also to fears by them that with Jonathan leading their party, it could go down to defeat in gubernatorial and legislative elections in many far northern states. Even though Buhari's CPC is virtually non-existent in the South, it could strengthen its position considerably if, as expected, it concludes a deal with the Action Congress of Nigeria [ACN] led by Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, which is now dominant in the South Western states. Tinubu nurses ambitions to be Buhari's running mate in the CPC/ACN alliance.
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